SnP update

We were looking at a IMPORTANT trendline last time:

http://markettechnicals-jonak.blogspot.com/2011/07/snp-500.html

We were close to breaking it today . The index just pricked it and returned. Signs of EXHAUSTION.

NIFTY intraday UPDATE

Nifty looking very weak. It stopped on the PINK line . But I think 5430 is the final target before any 50-100-150 point upmove. Looking for a hit at the GREEN trend line.

Parrallel channel lines have been hit . so shall we turn from here .  or more down side left . not sure .

Final chart for NIFTY today .i think we are rally now . Monday should be closing the GAP at 5548.  Nifty may even climb higher to touch that BLUE trend line .

Nifty for tomorrow

Another sell-off on HUGE VOLUME. Most probably we are going down tomorrow too to touch that RED trend line . Target 5440-5430. Expecting reversal only after that .A hint of divergence in technicals.

Taking a closer look at 4 hour chart . The PINK line , the Thick GREEN line , and the BLUE DASHED line intersects  at 5440. SO thats where I expect NIFTY to touch down tomorrow and return for a little rally towards that BLUE trend line which was broken.

Parrallel channel in 90 minute chart . Looking the lower line to get HIT.

Nifty for tomorrow

I think we should see a Bounce from here  on . Atleast to the blue line or else to the top of this triangle.

Although there is a chance that 5500 might get hit.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty didnt quite HIT that Perfect PARAllel CHANNEL last time . This time it might .

Bank NIFTY

ITC

This might work .

Nifty intra DAY

Hits the trend line and STOPs. But most probably going to strike the lower Bollinger Band. That would be 5520 area. Also 50 DMA at the same place.

5 minute chart . We are seeing some bounce . Which has hit the channel line . I still like a touch of 5500.Lets see.

Nifty Intra DAY

HUGE SELLING seen. 100 SMA is acting as SUPPORT . But I believe that will be taken  out this week.

100 SMA support Broken . GAP closes at 5540. 50 SMA might get HIT in this downtrend . 5510 region.

Bank NIFTY

Tomorrows RATE HIKE day . And everybody is looking at the BANKING INDEX. Why the Bank NIFTY is going higher the last 2 days . Because it wants to touch the UPPER CHANNEL line . Tomorrow I expect it to touch it and then come back to give a RED CLOSE.

India VIX

Yesterday I said that VIX is near the trend line . It touched it today and gave a higher close inspite of the markets going higher. ANd i think it will only go higher in the coming days .

NIFTY Updates INTRADAY

Is seeing a TREMENDOUS SPIKE. Most probably short covering . Still has massive resistances ahead.

Nifty STOPPED out at the previous CHANNEL resistance line . Also 200 SMA. Will it clear this tomorrow.

Reliance Charts

Upside looks CAPPED. Been moving down in a channel. Currently looks to be in correction . The fibonacci levels FITS very good. Right now at 38.8% retracement of the BIG fall from 966. Stocahstics(8) has given SELL signal. Other indicators are also near OVERBOUGHT. The current 38.2 % retracement level looks good resistance / On top of that The channel resistance is there. Expect this one to come down .

HCL TECH

One of the better Indian companies .Results this week . The rally looks massively exhaustive . Charts say results might not impress.

ITC .

Has seen a Nice run . I think its time to OFF LOAD. Is one of the top 5 in the NIFTY index.

NIFTY Updates INTRADAY

Nifty CHANNELING. Waiting for it to HIT that Upper Trend line at around 5640 , at which point I SHORT again.

As i had suspected , we return after HITTING that line . I am SHORT now.

Actually we saw a slight BREAKOUT . Now we in for a NICE TRIPLE TOP(http://thepatternsite.com/tt.html).

The VIX  near TREND LINE. ANother Clue we might see a nice down move in the NIFTY and an UPMOVE In VIX  from here on.

Some Stocks which might RALLY from here.

First is ICICI Bank. The 3rd largest weighted in the NIFTY.

INFOSYS turns fom the TREND LINE .ALso technicals TURNING from OVERSOLD region .

L & T . ANother HeavyWeight . Channelling . Stops at support and is making a GOOD BASE. Technicals Almost at the OVERSOLED region . Should move Higher from here. Also has bagged huge ORDERS from QATAR recently .

ONGC . Inverted Head and Shoulders ???

nIFTY VIEWS

I was expecting corrections and though we have been going down , its been very SLOW. Theres hardly any pace in the downtrend . The reason is the VERY SHORT TERM technicals are inside OVERSOLD region . Most of the time to HUGE 100 points FALL , are accompanied by VERY short TERM hourly Technicals TURNING from the OVERBOUGHT region . Now not only the Very SHort term Hourly Technicals are in Oversold Region , But also the DAILY technicals. Though there have been occasion where we had 100-150 points  FALL  in these conditions ,but  its rare and are accompanied by VERY BAD news .

Today Nifty rested in that Trend line . I am not short now . But I expect the Nift to move a bit higher from here . Before making another Plunge down .

SnP update

Crucial levels . I think LONGS should HOLD till that CCI(9) starts turing down from OVERBOUGHT level.

SBI

Should go down from here. Has been knocking on the RESISTANCE line without being able to break it. 

BEARISH ENGULFING appeared today . Serious divergence can be seen . 

Should come down to previous support level 2380 in 1-2 days time frame.

Nifty DOWN

As I had expected yesterday , NIFTY was a down day today . BEARISH ENGULFING formed. Tomorrow Also i expect a DOWN day as the technicals are pointing towards it . But not sure HOW much down side will come . I expect atleast the last PIVOT low 5497 . My favourite is 5470 . Lets see the next 2 days .

Theres an outside chance of HITTING that thick GREEN line .That would be around 5430 area.

NIFTY Updates

Did not go quite according to plan . Had a steep bounce . But the IMPORTANT thing is that HOURLY and 90 minute charts are Getting OVERbought now. I dont see much upside from here. Holding on to SHORTS .
Still some time left for this EXPIRY .

Pattern very SIMILAR TO HIS FEBRUARY 14-24  PATTERN.

SnP 500

Nothings really BROKEN in the SnP500 till now . The LOWER trend line SUPPORT was violated just by a little bit around AUGUST END. Just before the BIG rally in September. The other THREE points have touched with EXACT ACCURACY .CLICK on the CHARTS for better VIEW.

The Upper Trend Line has also been very ACCURATE in STOPPING the SnP 500 . 1260 -1270 is IMPORTANT support . SnP looks it will rally ONE LAST time after this fall. I reccomend you BUY when the CCI(20) is TURNING from the oversold Line or from the OVERSOLD area below .

NIFTY Updates

A smal DOWN day today . technicals still Pointing to a DOWN MOVE . Most probable targets can be seen below . My personal FAVOURITE is 50% retracement of 5468.  We have an outside chance of hitting those TREND Lines for 5410 area targets too  which would be 61.8% retracement targets .

 That RED trend line from where we BOUNCED last time is BROKEN. Other Important Fibo levels can be seen . ANother good target is 5438 .

Another Channel that might work .

The Nifty can fall to any of these . We will keep an eye on the OSCILLATORS to know good level of EXIT.

Tata Motors

Closed below IMPORTANT SUPPORT . Technical Indicators showing SELL signal. Expected to come down to HIT that trend Line.

DLF Ltd.

DLF Ltd has more down sides to come.

NIfty Midcap 50

The TREND lines and ELLIOT WAVES . Thats it for this one . Expecting the Index to come down to HIT the lower TREND LINE.

HDFC BANK ltd

HDFC Bank ltd. Weightage is 4.67%

L&T.

Its weekend . So I decided to take a look at the Nifty HEAVYWEIGHTS.Its 4t largest in nifty index with 5.96 %weightage.

 We see that it has travelled the 50% retracement . 2 times in the near PAST it has tried to climb past it but failed. Also HITTING 2 important TREND lines. Though has rallied for 3 days, STOCHASTICS have not moved and pointing DOWN MOVE. Volume MA shows rally for the past weeks have been on decreasing volume. EXPECTING the stock to move down wards.

Reliance charts .

Can it go higher from here. I don't think so.

Indian IT

IT Index charts below :

Expected to HIT that trend line tomorrow . Another down day and then we move UP.

NIFTY Updates

We did do a very good bounce . The lines i drew yesterday were all sliced through . Only that the DOWNMOVE began soon after . The indicators like CCI(14) and Stochastics(14,3) are still to enter OVERSOLD territory . And so I expect a deep fall. The pink channel that i drew ( POST below) was broken . So we will draw a new channel. With todays upmove , total  retracement was almost 61.8% of the previous fall.
So I assume that we have begun the next DOWN MOVE which will take us below the previous PIVOT low of  5497.

The WOLFE WAVE target is shown by the RED line . Green dashed lines represent NEW new CHANNEL

5-min chart below. The GAP which I thought was 5601 was actually at 5616. Thats the same RED Wolfe wave line. Target atleast 5500.

3rd chart. Though I like 50% retracement target 5468 . Though the last low 5490 might provide considerable support . With QE3 definetely NOT NOW, we might have a chance at 5415.Lets see how hard it FALLs tomorrow.

Have FUN Shorting.

NIFTY Updates

Got the upmove as expected . Just not sure how high this might go. Charts below(its beautiful isn't it ??)

The RED LINE should provide significant RESISTANCE. that should be touched around 5610 tomorrow.
This looks like a correction to the previous 5 wave - UPMOVE . So we completed A. B is in progress. Then we should be coming back for C. Todays QE3 speech by Bernanke have added fuel . So just not sure how high this might GO. the GAP is very near to todays CLOSE 5585. If we touch 5601 , GAP closed. I added that BLUE line as well. The intersection area of the RED line , BLUE line and the upper PINK channel should have enough fire-power to stop the NIFTY . 50% retracement of the recent DOWNMOVE  is at 5618. The same area.We will see tomorrow.