Have we set up for BIG FALL?????

I have this daily chart .We hit that parallel channel upper resistance line to reverse a bit.

To get a clearer picture where we hit the high today , i give the below chart. Thats the same parallel channel.

I sense that a BIG FALL is ahead by looking at this RELIANCE chart . The last day i said that reliance is gonna head up to hit that upper blue trend line . Today it crossed that line a bit and returned to close at the line . I sense a major fall here.

And to all the above charts I add another Pretty chart.

Finally we see that the action in the 5 minute chart for the last couple of days. The channel has been broken .
The markets tried to go above the support line again but failed and returned .

Thanks.

Nifty Hits resistance line.

Line which was proving to be a major support many times before is now a MASSIVE resistance. We should be ready to short NIFTY in 1-2 days time.

Thanks.

Counts Updated

We broke past the 5690 point which we had considered to be end of 1st wave. Since 4 cannot go into price territory of 1 , this is no longer a 5 -wave impulsive down  move. The most possible count now is given below:

The green line has been forming significant support and resistance at different points. Nifty clearly moving in a channel (red). the technicals are already showing signs of turning back . Just expecting the Nifty to move sideways for 2 days and then go up to touch that  intersecting point 5811. And then we can short this market.

Suppose we will be doing a double zig-zag. Rules here: http://thepatternsite.com/EWDoubleZigzag.html

Since its suppose to be a three  , I show the counts below:::

It seems we BEARS will great fun starting next couple days.

Look at Reliance.

The biggest stock in the NSE. Lets have a look.

Correction in progress. Looks like more ahead. But first I think we are gonna hit that point where the Upper blue trend line intersects with the red line. That comes at 1050. So wait for sometime before shorting . If this goes down like I foresee on this chart (WXY) , then the broader markets will also come down . And so I also expect the NSEI to go to 5800.

Another interesting chart I saw was this weekly chart . A symmetrical triangle from which Reliance broke out after 2 years. !!!!!!!!!

Heres Bulkowski's site:::http://thepatternsite.com/st.html

Thanks.

Bank Nifty WW

Wolfe Wave on bank Nifty . Short as much as you want .

Or you may wait for one day.

Weekly NIFTY CHART

Some more Information from the Nifty Weekly chart. Nifty has broken the parallel channel and also the fibo fan 61.8% line on extremely LOW volume . This should be a suspect .

Thanks.

Apple on a correction

Apple finds resistance at trend line . More correction ahead.

Thanks

Getting the BIG picture right.

Now we really have to get the big picture right so that we know in what wave we really are. That will show what the current trend is. Let us look at this monthly chart .

Heres what Michael Eckert from http://elliottwavetrendsandcharts.com wrote in the below post :

http://elliottwavetrendsandcharts.com/wordpress/2011/03/26/week-end-observations-4/

."... the RSI always hits its extremes at the top of the iii of 3 wave, not the top of the 3rd wave itself, it normally diverges. Momentum is at it peak and the price action is it’s strongest for the iii of 3rd wave."


Look at the RSI which is at the highest level at the same point at (3) also market by the vertical red line .
So according to that we are in a 4th wave correction since that 6352 TOP in JAN 2008. Of that correction we have already done the A and B waves . Now we are in the C -wave down . But the thing we have to find out is whether we are going to do a FLAT a-b-c ( 3-3-5) structure   or a Triangle a-b-c-d-e(3-3-3-3-3).


A and B can be shown as 3 wave structures .  The structure of this C wave will make things clear.  


Some People are aiming at sensex 30000 too. Its up to us what count we follow.

Wrong TREND line

I was sure the markets wouldn't go up until it touched the lower trend line . It did touch it. I had drawn the trend lines joining a different point. Well if you look at the chart below , we will find out that we did indeed touch it and then go up. Will try to be more careful next time.

Sorry and thanks.

Where Are we

Why havent we gone up even with Technicals being oversold.....its because we haven't hit that lower red trend line . That will happen at around 5325 area.

I think tomorrow we will hit that lower red trend line and go up.

I have already got the MOST PROBABLE TARGET for the next up move. I have a hunch this will come FAST----keep ur fingers on that "BUY CALLs" button tomorrow. As for that MOST PROBABLE TARGET  I think that comes around 5630. Around  that area. Then starts the vicious 5th wave. Look at the point where the blue lines meet with the upper red trend line.

Thanks. 

So Close

We are so close to my Favorite TARGET of 5330. Todays fall takes us to 5373. The technical indicators are oversold. But still I think we will be touching that 5330 area on Monday.

But on the way down I saw something . I had always suspected that we will be doing a a-b-c-d-e triangle.
I also have a MOST PROBABLE target for that 5679.And that is 50% retracement of the 3 rd wave . See the 15 min chart below . Thats a Wolfe Wave with targets 5650 area. With the technical indicators already oversold , that is more conformation that we will be heading back up again ......FAST.

Wait for sometime on Monday . See the action and you should know when to BUY CALLs.

Thanks.

Most probable Target

....of this intermediate downtrend looks like 5334. At that point we would also fill up the GAP that occured on the way up. 5334 is also 123.6% of that last 2 day uptrend fro 5373 to today's 5537. The trend lines also co-incides well at that very point .

 
Could this come tomorrow itself . Most probably by Friday . Lets see.

Thanks.

Important support levels

Since expecting a fall tomorrow, we should draw our important SUPPORT lines . I found 3 very important ones colored in Orange.Even more important are the meeting points of these lines. Those 3 points come at 5433, 5417 and 5383.
 The up-move from 5373 has retracement fibo levels are at 5435( 61.8%) 5408 ( 78.6%) and lastly offcourse 5373. Try to square off your PUTs at these levels. Because no matter how hard markets fall they always make a bounce back from important levels.

Thanks.

Bearish for next week

Lets look at the hourly chart.

First we have to fill that GAP. That will be done when the nifty is at 5334. The Gartley which has been forming is showing some perfect Fibonacci relations. C retraced exactly 78.6% of AB at 5564. We have been sliding down since then . Now we are below the 20 HEMA ( green).  Look closely how it had been providing significant support and resistance all this while. On Monday I expect the markets to try to touch the 20 HEMA again. And if we take 5313 level, that would be 78.6% of XA.

The reversal zone shown by the point D also coincides with the strong trend line support we had been shown by Orange. I expect the markets to touch that line within this  week .

Again we take a look at very short term charts for more Info. Now we are trying to forecast what might happen just the very next week . So we have to look at minute details. Below is a 1 minute chart .

We saw a huge impulsive move down after the earthquake. The Nifty went down from 5502 to 5411. Now that 5409 area has been acting as a good support for almost two months now.  Slowly we saw some pullback  . I think the retracement will be to that 61.8% line which is 5467. Now 5467 had been acting as a very strong support and we had seen some good bounces from that point. Well now that we are below it , we might try to touch that line again .

On Monday I expect the Markets to travel towards the upper blue channel line .  And then reverse. We can already see one of the targets if that markets complete that Wolfe Wave by touching or moving close to that Upper blue channel line. That Target is shown by the thick RED line giving a target of 5410.



The 15 min chart shows there will be a bullish up-move to that channel top.

Some more Information from the 1 minute chart::

If we assume this will play out a ABCD pattern , then the first targets will be 5377.

If we measure the current retracement , and consider it as AB=CD pattern , The D point comes to 5467-5471 range .

The above things were said by the charts . But offcourse we have other troubles like ME revolutions hotting up and JAPAN nuclear trouble.

We will see tomorrow .

Thanks.

Nifty Monday Intraday

We had a small bounce from the lows of Friday. But in think we will be hitting that 5400 area again pretty soon .
In the one minute charts we get our next targets . After climbing up,  we touch that upper blue trend line or may be even that red line . Then the market slides again to touch that green line or lower .

The hourly chart here . Nifty will try to bounce back to the 50 hour moving average. Around there the slide starts . Notice the GAP that we have to fill.

The  trend is down and we will be hitting 5300 soon . Expected to bounce from that lower trend line.

Thanks.

Nifty update

Many people are saying we are going to 5650 levels. Even I feel that we are going to that level . But not before some pretty good up-down movements on the way . It looks like we are set to HIT that RED  LOWER trend line , before moving up towards that Upper RED TREND LINE towards our 5650 level. That would complete this 4th wave and start the dreaded 5th wave that would take us below 5000 .

Gartley is also showing a reversal zone of 5313--5330 . We may reach 5330 by Monday .

Thanks 

SnP update

We should be hitting that BLUE trendline . target that 78.6% ratio meets the trendline . So you should be shorting for the next 2 days.....or may be 1.

Thanks.

SnP Charts

Trendlines are sometimes your best friends . In the S&P chart below ,

What I feel is , markets are going to come down again to touch that lower green trend line and complete the pattern within that red trend lines.  And then Head back up .

NIFTY TRADE SET-UP

Hi . We are looking at a 2 hour chart with the GARTLEY . The red lines shows  wolfe wave pattern forming.
The NIFTY has been very very consistent when it comes to reversals after hitting trend-lines. So we should be looking like a Hawk at that pink trend-line. The Gartley reversal range and that trend line are pretty close to each other. I expect the NIFTY to hit 5667 , and also touch the upper bollinger band on Monday and then reverse to start the 5th wave .  The stochastics become overbought at the same time.

To play the reversal: Buy Puts 5400 Puts above 5650. Square it off when the nifty retraces 61.8% of AD line at 5363 region or even 78.6% retracemnt level ( whenever the stochastics gets oversold). After a little rally of 100 points short again to target that low of 5177 or 100 % retracement of AD line.

Thanks.

Its the DEATH cross baby .

Next week is really important . I mean really really IMPORTANT.  Its not always that you see a DEATH cross appearing on your charts . The NIFTY charts show that since January 2005 the death cross has formed only twice ; if we count yesterday's slight crossover . Once in May 2008 which is shown by that red arrow . yesterday the 50 EMA crossed the 200 EMA slightly .

We also see that 61.8% Fibonacci level is acting as SERIOUS SUPPORT . If that breaks , then all hell breaks loose. I think the Nifty will rally to 5679 and then head downwards confirming that death cross. And the rest of the story is known from previous experience.

Thanks.

S&P update

The S&P will complete this pattern when it touches that upper trend line or crosses it by a little. Short it then for a target of around 1290 or less.

Some Pretty Charts

Now lets see where we are in the Nifty .

( iii ) was 178.6% extension of ( i ). ( ii ) retraced almost 78.6 % of  ( i ). I have put up the ( iii ) line showing the Fibonacci ratios. The ( iv ) will most probably retrace 50% of  ( iii ), i.e 5679..  Most probably by Monday itself.That means we are going to see a120+ point rally in the Nifty. It touches that upper trend line or there might be a false break-out , only to reverse back violently . Libya is boiling again after cooling down last week and Oil soaring . These will be the news blamed for the Massive sell-off coming.

The Gartley here shows a trend change at 5697--5725 levels.

 The WolfeWaves red line showing a target of 5000 area .

So , first target 5679 , and then head down for a big fall next week . I cant wait for that . thanks

Gold correction to take it 1000 level

Not immediately . But you may be able to buy gold for much below what it is now. Multi--Month correction ahead. It may even touch 1600 levels before correction begins. But the chart shows correction upto 1000 levels.

thanks.

SHORT WaLMART

Keep Shorting WALMART. Targets less than 45 dollars.

Thanks

Apple Targets

Apple Target 250 area by May 2011???

Thanks.

S & P targets

I dont see the S& P moving much higher from here. Good targets would be 1250 area in coming weeks.

Good luck

GOOGLE TARGETS

Book your profits above that red line . Google has target less than 300 in coming months.

Thanks.

Buy GM

I would recommend you to BUY GM. Target shown by the ellipse , around 37 area.

Also that GAP must be filled. Book Profits at 37 area.

Nifty Fibo resistance

After the Nifty fell around 150 points in 15 minutes , today it went up 190 points . Talk about volatilty.

I thought we had already done the 4th wave and were in the 5th . But NOOOOOOO. It seems we havent completed the 4th . This is the difficulty with corrective waves. But one thing is for sure . It has hit MASSIVE resistance line . That fibonacci 61.8% line has been a strong resistance for a while now. So i dont feel like going long at this point . Theres no reason why it may not be broken , and  the Nifty might go on to trade that parallel channel shown by the red lines.  But I think its better to watch at the moment.Or you might trade with tight stop losses.

Thanks.