CNX FMCG

Divergences seen . Should have sharp correction now.

HDFC BANK ltd

Another heavyweight in the NIFTY index with 4.67% weight . 5 waves looks complete with 5th wave a little more than 61.8% of 1. Also Double TOP formed . And divergences seen . Better sell this one .

ITC

Target achieved .

http://markettechnicals-jonak.blogspot.com/2011/06/itc-might-break-200.html

DIvergence seen. technicals Overbought. And 5 waves looks to be complete. Further upside doesnt look its coming . HeavyWEIGHT in NIfty index with 5.2% weightage , it will weigh heavily in Nifty when it comes down .

Pattern Watch

Noticed this FAMILIAR pattern in the one minute chart . Lets see if we HIT the RED DASHED target line .

We should get our TEST results today itself.

Well , not quite the pattern that i had expected , but we came down though.

Thanks.

Parralel channels.

 Major channel just managed to HOLD ON this time . Will it  able to hold on when we come down soon some time next month .???????????

And when that LOWER CHANNEL TREND line breaks , it will be SELL-NOW-ASK-QUESTIONS-LATER  time.

Until QE3.

Thanks.

Nifty up

Got the UP MOVE that I had expected. See post below. The higher moves from here will be a bit slower with little corrections.Expecting 5600and above by end of NEXT WEEK. Not sure about time though.

Thanks.

NIFTY Updates

Look at this WEEKLY chart .

After a W-X-Y   drop , Nifty consolidated in a a-b-c-d-e- kind of wave before finally taking flight to touch the BREAKDOWN level shown by the Horizontal line. Nifty also goes on to HIT the WOLFE WVE target shown by the RED line . Now we take a look at the recent NIFTY action in short term charts .

 

The pattern look similar and we are again CONSOLIDATING in a very similar fashion. According to this chart , we should atleast go on to hit that BREAKDOWN level at around 5370 shown by the DASHED line.

After that we may again go on to HIT 5600 target shown by PINK WolfeWAve . 

Another Bull case is the DIVERGENCE appearing in MACD .4 HOUR CHART BELOW . This MACD divergence is seen in DAILY CHARTS TOO.

Then we have this descending BROADENING pattern itself. (http://thepatternsite.com/rabfd.html) .

We could JUMP to the upper level.

And Nifty rallied nice after hitting that trend line.

Nifty:DEEP red

That Mauritius news came out of nowhere. On such sudden and BIG news days , Technical go to HELL. BIG RED candle day but it was interesting to note where NIFTY stopped . It sure broke one trend  line. But stopped on a MAJOR one . Infact that is the one which was forming something off a perfect PARALLEL CHANNEL..

Expecting a little bounce to touch that RED trend line which was broken . That should give another shorting opportunity. Lets see.

MAuritius update:  The story is here: "  A chunk of foreign investment in the stock market comes through companies registered in the Indian Ocean island. 

The tax treaty provides that capital gains arising in India for these companies from the sale of securities can only be taxed in Mauritius. The island nation does not tax capital gains, leading to zero taxation for the firms. 

The two countries are expected to review the treaty soon, a source in the finance ministry said, but declined to elaborate on the time-frame."  

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/market-news/sensex-plunges-by-364-points-to-4-month-low-realty-auto-down/articleshow/8925702.cms

The govt has denied that there was any talk of any review though::

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/no-talksindo-mauritius-tax-treaty-revision-govt_558543.html

thanks.

Nifty Update

Last Hope for BULLS. Trend line Support. RSI showing loss of momentum. Indicators in OVERSOLD.

I never expected this much correction . But Greece and dollar to blame. But with news about a 150 billion dollar  Bailout, we might see the final down move in dollar and spike in stocks. The dollar has failed to break 76 and now moving down. China has also come to support . This doesn't not mean that Greece will not default but surely will buy some time . Definitely hoping for a rally from Monday . I can already see the Global Dow , and other indices rallying. Not exactly sure how far this will go (IF IT DOES RALLY) . 5600 looks achievable. 5700 may be too . This will DEPEND ON HOW MUCH LOWER THE DOLLAR MOVES.

Below  is a chart i found in danerics site( http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/) . One more move down should help to reach 5700.But not sure . Will have to keep an eye on the technicals for any hint of the UPMOVE.

So the DOLLAR IS THE KEY. Keep an eye on it . If it moves below 72.87 (last low ) then we can HEAD upto 5700.

ITC ..might break 200

I thought ITC had ended 5 waves . but i think this 5th wave might break out to new highs.

Aiming for 78.6% of 1 or even 100%.

one more chart showing technicals :

Atleast 200 is what we can expect.

 This is another big pie in Nifty index.

SBI

Another Biggie : this has been falling for a while. Now I expect a rally with Technicals OVERSOLD.

Expecting another 200 point rally in this one and this will also help fuel  the NIFTY

Reliance chart

One reason why the Nifty didn't rally as much as I had expected is this. Reliance had a big fall today too. Chart below shows technicals OVERSOLD. Tomorrow also I expect a BLACK DAY. I expect a small black candle to form after touching 900 support area and also the lower Bollinger Band  Expect a rally from the next day.

Since I am expecting the fall to be less , this will help the Nifty RALLY MORE than today.

Thanks.

Nifty Technicals turned

...And I think we are headed for the rally I was waiting for. I was almost loosing my patience. The next target should be 5690. The horizontal line and the declining trend line resistance is what Nifty will be aiming for.

But most probably we will reach the target only by the first half of next week.

Thanks.

Nifty Rise

There are a couple of reasons for which i feel that the correction in Nifty is over and we may rally from tomorrow. itself. Or atleast from Monday onwards. First a look at the VIX.

A DOJI formed today in the VIX chart signalling that we may see a down move .Also the technicals are overbought. We may slide down here to touch the lower Bolliner band line  heralding the next NIFTY rally.

Next chart is of the Nifty itself.  Again a the fall in RSI has halted. The CCI(8)  is also touching  OVERSOLD
line. Again the N v/s N rule I learnt in COBRAS blog. The uptrend was for 5 days. This correction is 6 days long now and still the market hasnt corrected more than 38.2%. So BULLs WIN. We should be target 5650 atleast on the next UPMOVE.

Nifty Counts rethink...and FOREcast

I had been thinking over and over again how this market will play out . The main thing we notice here is the massive channel that nifty has been playing . The lower trend line support has been held for OVER 1.5 years now. Usually it takes lot of consolidation whenever a market needs to break a Good resistance or support.

I thought that the C wave had already started .  I had assumed the END of the 1st wave at 5328 and was thinking that this was the 2nd wave . But a few observations made me rethink my count


Let us see the BIG picture. That lower channel trend line support will need some consolidation to break. BEARS will need to gather some steam before they can break that one.  One more PnF chart analyst has pointed out that there WILL BE sufficient CONSOLIDATION before that breaks. the article can be found here(http://niftypointandfigure.blogspot.com/)

Another chart below shows the weekly candles. I have highlighted withe red circles and verticle lines the points where we have huge nifty sell-OFFS.. We dont get huge sell-offs most of the time without the Stochastics being in overbought condition. Currently the stochastics are showing an Uptrend of around 250 points  before we see any significant sell-offs.

This current  wave also looked TOO STEEP to be a 2nd wave of a C wave .
So heres my MOST PROBABLE COUNT . We havent started the C wave . We are consolidating in a triangle in the B wave before the BIG breakout downwards . Just on time when QE2 ends.

Lets wait and see . And trade light.

Thanks.

Nifty Down

Today was a down day . That green candle is because markets opened GAP down and closed a bit higher.
Still I see this down move to continue till 5490 tomorrow to hit that MID BOLLINGER line . This will complete the " b " wave of this 2nd wave. If you see the post below, the VIX rallied as expected.

Thanks.

India VIX

...touches the TREND LINE . Looking for a little rally . And so a down move for the Nifty.

Thanks.