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Sunday, June 5, 2011

Nifty Counts rethink...and FOREcast

I had been thinking over and over again how this market will play out . The main thing we notice here is the massive channel that nifty has been playing . The lower trend line support has been held for OVER 1.5 years now. Usually it takes lot of consolidation whenever a market needs to break a Good resistance or support.

I thought that the C wave had already started .  I had assumed the END of the 1st wave at 5328 and was thinking that this was the 2nd wave . But a few observations made me rethink my count

Let us see the BIG picture. That lower channel trend line support will need some consolidation to break. BEARS will need to gather some steam before they can break that one.  One more PnF chart analyst has pointed out that there WILL BE sufficient CONSOLIDATION before that breaks. the article can be found here(

Another chart below shows the weekly candles. I have highlighted withe red circles and verticle lines the points where we have huge nifty sell-OFFS.. We dont get huge sell-offs most of the time without the Stochastics being in overbought condition. Currently the stochastics are showing an Uptrend of around 250 points  before we see any significant sell-offs.

This current  wave also looked TOO STEEP to be a 2nd wave of a C wave .
So heres my MOST PROBABLE COUNT . We havent started the C wave . We are consolidating in a triangle in the B wave before the BIG breakout downwards . Just on time when QE2 ends.

Lets wait and see . And trade light.



  1. i very well agree to it and was about to post something on these lines.. when wave A is in 3 waves.. chances of wave B being a triangle is much higher... what kind of triangle it can be, depends where Nifty takes support in its downtrend..

  2. well ...about the shape of the triangle ....the trend lines may help forecast looks like a contracting one ...doesnt it ???not much difficult prediction there...

  3. @ jonak,

    hope you did not get influenced by some stupid PnF analyst's nonsense analysis :)

    My only fear when everybody gets the game, the game changes! Therefore, a plan B becomes handy!