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Thursday, October 11, 2012

Nifty : Back to 5800+

Since all the major money flow is from the US FED, the US Presidential cycle has been giving good bottoms till now . Here are two charts:



And here is  one for October Month :

 These charts show a bottom around 10th October from where we see a good up move. These Presidential cycle charts have been able to indicate major bottoms this year for Nifty too.

Now I had been keenly watching a 1 minute chart of Nifty when we saw that big 170+ points up-move in Nifty . I am presenting to you once again ere below .



At 5630 I believe Nifty is at good Support , and at the point shown by the Green triangle pointer. Once again just as a reminder i bring forward to you the 2004 chart . Which has also been replicated till now .Here we see it below . Now compare the area above the RED horizontal line to the area between the red horizontal lines in the above chart.



Now we see our present Nifty chart . We definitely see that Nifty is landing on good support. One indicator I used here below is the 13 Period Bollinger bands. With today's levels the bollinger band lower level has been touched . These bands give good bottom indicators in corrective period.


So looking at all those charts , I have drawn a blue arrow as the next Nifty path . Going long today . 
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16 comments:

  1. UnknownOctober 12, 2012 at 9:36 AM

    Sir for bollinger bands which one you use 13,2 0r 13,1.5.

    ReplyDelete
  2. UnknownOctober 12, 2012 at 11:11 AM

    sir can you give more detailed analysis of the nifty, as you are long but nifty came are you still holding nifty longs?

    ReplyDelete
  3. jonakOctober 12, 2012 at 11:26 AM

    I m holding longs....during an upmove..i try to square off at particular levels...and then enter again at lower levels.......i use Nifty basic Support and resistance levels and also Bollinger bands....today i bought again at 5710 area...though it came came below that.....I am holding long...and next week we should be gong higher.....I dont update all intraday moves...

    ReplyDelete
  4. UnknownOctober 12, 2012 at 11:36 AM

    sir asked for your view because when you said short term top it nifty came down sliding from there,wht i mean was for weekend update not based on today's movement, can you mention where nifty may find resis or support in your views so that followers can find a point to exit

    ReplyDelete
  5. UnknownOctober 12, 2012 at 1:09 PM

    http://www.niftybear.com/2012/10/us-consumer-sentiment-index-shining.html

    ReplyDelete
  6. VinayOctober 13, 2012 at 11:33 PM

    good one jonak. I see two possibilites and they should occur this week itself e.g. up till 16th oct, then down till 8th nov and then up all the way or the opposite. I personally feel that former will come true. I am hedged as of now.

    ReplyDelete
  7. jonakOctober 14, 2012 at 4:27 AM

    yes Vinay.....We should be near 6000 in November.....as for Supports and resistances.......major resistance at 5740--5755 in NF....When NF crosses that,it becomes support...I will take off longs when Nifty crosses 5800:)

    ReplyDelete
  8. UnknownOctober 19, 2012 at 11:06 PM

    sir any update?

    ReplyDelete
  9. jonakOctober 20, 2012 at 5:50 AM

    the supports at 5630 have held.....I think we are going to break it.....I missed one 11-13 day down trend cycle......i think we should break up soon.....I know plenty of people are talking about 5500....more sosince DOW fell a lot last Friday ....But I dont think thats gonna happen....we also have a possible inverse HnS in the 5 hour chart with neckline at 5740 NF ...and target 5840 NF.......I m holding LONGS

    ReplyDelete
  10. jonakOctober 20, 2012 at 5:51 AM

    Correction-----"I tink we are NOT going to break it"

    ReplyDelete
  11. UnknownOctober 21, 2012 at 2:40 AM

    Sir can you upload the 5 hour chart of nifty and defty.

    ReplyDelete
  12. jonakOctober 21, 2012 at 3:54 AM

    no..having problems......with copying from forexpros...

    ReplyDelete
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