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Saturday, April 28, 2012

NIFTY: Rethinking scenario

If you look at my below 2 posts , I was extremely bullish , calling for 5630 and even 5885 by may end. I had completely overlooked on of my most favourite indicators , 13 period Bollinger Bands in weekly chart.

I was also wrong to go LONG  for the last 2 weeks as once the market breached the  MID BB level , it was bound to hit the lower level and it was hit this week. So i should have waited for this Friday atleast.

One can see that many a times we hit the upper level exactly to do a reversal. And so last Jan-Feb rally also hit the
upper level and correction started. The upper band was stretched a bit because it was a fast rally.

The JAN -FEB rally was also similar to 2010 end year rally. And the correction now also looks similar. I have marked the points  1,2...till 6. The raly stopped at 1 and then travelled till 2 breaching the MID BB level.But the lower BB level was not touched . So the markets went up to hit the MID BB level at 3 . And then finally came to hit the lower BB Level at 4. Then it rallied 75% exactly of the 1-2 fall. Only to go down fast till 6 , which is 66.7% , BB lower level,34 week SMA.

Now the same thing looks to be happening. One difference is that point 3 now managed to close above MID BB level. but the 1-2 fall was also slower than 2010 1-2 fall. But the point is once it came down MID BB ,  it was bound to hit the LOWER BB , even if it manages to close above MID BB . So no longs should have been taken by me atleast till last FRIDAY.

So now it seems , point 4 is done and we are ripe for a rally to 5500 which is 75%  of 1-2  fall , which also coincides with UPPER BB. the rally may also go only till 5467 which is 66.7% of 1-2 fall. And then i expect a fall towards 6 which is 50% of the whole rally , 34 week SMA ( light blue) and 13 BB Lower level also at the same place , which is 5110.

One may easily say , that the same scenario might not play again. Well i got one more clue why i think that next 5 and 6 points should come in next 1 month period.

The below WOLFE WAVE shows a target of atleast 5450 in Nifty futures. I think that will go a little more than that to hit 5500 level. So that should be our point 5 . And every Wolfe wave target hit also sees a good reversal , And usually the reversal point reaches point 3 atleast. Here The point 3 is at 5172 in NF. I already stated 5110. So we can take average of 5172 and 5110 , as 5135 to be our point 6 target.  The below Wolfe wave took 23 candles in NF to form . So i expect target to be hit in around 11 trading days.

The DEFTY charts in previous post also giving a high target and time is mid May.

 And now to show that we should not fall anymore from here, I used this pitchfork chart to show that we are at good support.
We can easily see how well these parallel lines are acting as supports and resistances.. These lines are parralel to the Median line with the crucial point 1 shown in the chart.

For now i have given up hope of seeing 5880 . the 13 BB weeky chart shows that upside is capped at 5500 atleast for a month period may be.


  1. Good explaination for non-Techi to understand.
    God bless you,
    Bye the way my both sons are from Don Bosco,Park Circus, Calcutta .

  2. This comment has been removed by the author.

  3. Bosconians are a special breed