Nifty :--Consolidation

---before we get a major rally .....Looking at a some of my favorite indicators for varying periods....
parallel channel looks to be the best consolidation formation here....averaged my shorts today .

The arrow head shows what I am targeting. Holding Puts.

Nifty : Back to 5800+

Since all the major money flow is from the US FED, the US Presidential cycle has been giving good bottoms till now . Here are two charts:

And here is  one for October Month :

 These charts show a bottom around 10th October from where we see a good up move. These Presidential cycle charts have been able to indicate major bottoms this year for Nifty too.

Now I had been keenly watching a 1 minute chart of Nifty when we saw that big 170+ points up-move in Nifty . I am presenting to you once again ere below .

At 5630 I believe Nifty is at good Support , and at the point shown by the Green triangle pointer. Once again just as a reminder i bring forward to you the 2004 chart . Which has also been replicated till now .Here we see it below . Now compare the area above the RED horizontal line to the area between the red horizontal lines in the above chart.

Now we see our present Nifty chart . We definitely see that Nifty is landing on good support. One indicator I used here below is the 13 Period Bollinger bands. With today's levels the bollinger band lower level has been touched . These bands give good bottom indicators in corrective period.

So looking at all those charts , I have drawn a blue arrow as the next Nifty path . Going long today . 

GODFATHER is here, India

The undisputed CZAR of the financial world .....is here with his right hand man..........what the hell is cooking?

Say Hi ...:)

Nifty : Short term top

I had added shorts yesterday and averaged today . I was going to post yesterday but did not get time. As indicated in the last post i was waiting for the CCI(34) to come close to the +100 line from the top . Well its almost there but the reason I added shorts yesterday was because looking at a couple of other things , I think the short term top is in.

Look at CCI(14) . Its showing divergence . CCI(14) divergence gives a good trade most of the time. But also look at DMI. The yellow part of the graph is at extreme levels... Also the green part of the graph is behaving like in september 2010 at which a correction was seen. Also its channeling but more than the channel , its the wedge formation and wedges have been acting very good in Nifty .

The DEFTY has also got divergence but RSI is majorly overbought reason. and also major trend line resistance.

TheVIX is giving higher lows and hammer like candles and getting support.

As of now i had squared off the PUTs at lower level 34 period Bollinger Band at 5732 in NF from were it bounced back . I hope we touch 34 hour mid BB level or the 34 hour SMA at 5792 at which poiny I go short again.


Some weeks back I posted a 1 minute chart showing "Shape of things to come" . I had deleted the post but I think we are doing exactly the same graph as seen in that 1 minute chart.

See the region between the 2 red horizontal lines. I think this correction in October month will be the same . Looking at the above above 1 minute chart I think we should hit 5525  like below ...in the first down wave as shown by the arrow.....lets see.

Have fun.

Nifty :Strong blast

Did not expect this strong blast . Don't really know where its headed right now. Only thing I am hoping at this time is that October 1st week or may be 2nd we should get a good buy opportunity. But how is the market gonna behave till then . How high is it going from here. Difficult to say. If I say that October 1st week we should get a very good BUY opportunity , then we should see some correction . But when will the correction start and how high can this market go?

We see from the above chart DMI( Directional movement index ) and the ATR behaving very similar to 2010 September period. The green graph in the first indicator(DMI) has been absolutely stretched( look at the down arrow). The ATR ( 2nd indicator) is also rising in a similar manner. After the point shown by the down arrow corresponding to today's action in markets...the markets kept on going higher for around 200 more points before a meaningful correction set in from 6030 to 6223. If the same thing repeats we might see around 5935 in a couple of sessions before we see a correction heading into October 1st week or may be 2nd. 

Defty today has crossed a very important trendline resistance. Used 2 good indicators in the chart below CMO(34) is yet to get overbought . And CCI(34) is way above the 100 line . The markets could go u till the CCI(34) comes from above the +100 line and touches the 100 line itself. Using this logic we see that markets have some distance to go up. 

Another chart is this USD -INR chart . The blue trend line support has just been broken today . But just by a bit though. A RED  channel might give support if this continues to go down . And that support might come around the green line at 52.620.

I know the markets are overbought . But the markets can easily touch 5940 in 2 days time in this overbought condition too . But if still in doubt people might stay away and we should be going LONG in  October. 

Ganapati Bappa Maurya

Shri Guru Charan Saroj Raj
Nij mane mukure sudhar
Varnao Raghuvar Vimal Jasu
Jo dayaku phal char ........................................ ........................................ ........................................ ........................................

......................................
Pavantnai sankat haran,
Mangal murti roop.
Ram Lakhan Sita sahit,
Hrdaye basahu sur bhoop.


Jai Hanuman. 

Markets::Up against the wall

Markets are really now up at crucial resistance points and have a parabolic shape. Most of parabolic markets end badly . The day saw markets striking against resistance levels and SOLD off with HUGE volumes. First look at a very important DEFTY chart. Very very overbought too.

I did one post on Bank Nifty which was following a kind of count ( not elliot wave count).

http://markettechnicals-jonak.blogspot.com/2012/08/bank-nifty-fun-chart.html


This is very important analog  I think  and Bank Nifty might go on to hit that trend line again to form point 14 like in 2010. That point 14 is near the point 10 level and that means Bank Nifty might fall a lot from here.

Nifty is going absolute parabolic. We do have a very good WOLFE WAVE  with targets shown by red line.
RSI (210) is at years overbought level. MACD has hidden and regular divergence. And if BANK NIFTY really makes that 13--14 path as shown above , there is a chance we might hit that WOLFE wave target below 5200.

One more addition. Most likely cycle that is being followed by markets around the world is this US presidential cycle.  As I said before this should be the TOP and Ocober 1st we should be doing a 80 week Hurst cycle bottom. Major rally after that.

Lets see. I am holding on to shorts now.

Nifty update.

Went long . Its not going down as I thought . I think its better to go long or else I will miss the rest of the upward journey . Most probably Nifty is going to hit that upper Blue line at around 5520.

Nifty update

So as I suspected this zone is proving to be a real resistance . But Nifty Futures could only come down to 5350 level  contrary to the 5295 level which I expected. But still I think I will wait for tomorrow's IIP to be announced before taking any position. IIP days have been seen to be negative . So lets wait.

Nifty UP

So got the upmove that I was waiting . And how do I play this. I have taken off my longs. Below is a daily chart with 21 day Bollinger band. Mid BB level should provide resistance.

Below is the 5 hour chart with 21 period BB.  Nifty Futures hitting upper level, that is even a better info that we should not go higher from here without going lower.Stiff resistance this upper 5 hour BB level always. Should not cross at the first attempt.  I think we will get NF near the mid bollinger level at 5295 area to BUY again. May be on Monday .

Booked my longs and waiting . Monday looks to be a buy again at some lower level. 

Nifty

The up-move that I was expecting has not come but we have not gone down either.  Indicators are oversold or very near oversold zone.The lower trend line support is very near. Also 21 day Bollinger Band. Most probably a touch down at 5215 and the GAP will also be closed.

Then a bounce.

Nifty

Ok. Oversold . Touched the neckline of inverse HnS. 34 SMA supported. Huge volume . Should be doing a little upmove from here on.

Nifty

I did better with my forecasts last year than this year . This year is looking tough. Perhaps i am giving less importance to my trusted Indicators like CCI and others  and concentrating on outer functions like US presidential cycles etc etc.

The OBV is just resting on the line from where it bounced before. Also 34 SMA is near the NS. Indicators have entered Oversold area. From this I can only say that fall may not be much from here on.

Looking at Bank Nifty gives more information. Some time back i produced a Bank Nifty chart . That one is going  right as I thought.

http://markettechnicals-jonak.blogspot.com/2012/08/bank-nifty-fun-chart.html

The current BANK Nifty I think has one more day of fall . Max 2 days . And its going to hit that lower support trend line.  So  Nifty should also have 1 -2 days fall. A divergence is seen in CCI(14) for BN.
RSI is entering oversold area.

So I think tomorrow should be another down day and might be they-after tomorrow. And then a bounce.

Nifty update

As  I stated in the post below , we saw vary little pullback from the resistance line in Defty. Nifty only made a low of 5294. And now we have broken  the red line , next target blue line . at 3475. I think this up move is going to continue till September 1st week  if we go by US presidential year cycle. . Hard to say what level. We should see 5600, if we are lucky , 5740.

Nifty has a Cup and Handle pattern target of 5900. The bottom is a good W formation , but the volume is not that impressive.  But as i said  some weeks back , I expected the ATR to go below July 2010 levels, and near to August 2010 levels. So explosive moves are expected in the next couple of months.

Have fun.

DEFTY

Defty Overbought . And at double top resistance. So expecting a little cool off in Nifty.Not much though. Good support at 5260 in Nifty .

Stock Watch

Symbol::TVTODAY .  Possible complex Inverse HnS pattern forming . Also ascending triangle looks to be developing . One could accumulate this for  a target of 100 .

KPIT Cummins Infosystems. Good breakout of ascending triangles. Target 145-150.

Symbol:UGARSUGAR.  Good volume breakout . target 20-22.

Bank Nifty . fun chart

 The shape is not matching but  still i like this one . Bank Nifty could correct upto the lower trend line support for point 12.

Nifty : Ready to short??

My favourite indicators are at overbought levels. I think tomorrow could be the last day of this upmove. Planning to enter short tomorrow.

Nifty :Waiting game

Nothing should be done now . Indicators are moving towards the oversold zone. According to some analyst US 10 year treasuries are going to bottom around August 1st -2nd week. And then we could be seeing some good rally. Before that a good correction is expected in S&P index .

Looking at the Nifty chart we see that ATR has gone down a lot , and now just bounced from a level seen in July 2010. I expect it to go lower than that find support at August 2010 low levels.
And after that I expect the ATR to rise , and so explosive moves can be seen.

Nifty : 5600+ coming

...i think in about 3 weeks time.

Nifty ::Breakout ahead

Though i was expecting 4980...it did not come ....now the price action looks heavily bullish to me. We could go as high as 5404 in June. In previous uotrends 8 SMA gave support to price in congestion zone.. This time too 8 sma gave support and pushing Nifty upwards in great speed.

Ascending triangle like form in this congestion zone.

I have a target of 5380 by June 21st  taking into account a previous similar pattern. Lets see.

Nifty :Downmove again

I was going for a target of 5300 ...but now i m short ..i think we can go agin into 4960 area....Wolfe wave targets given by BLUE line....rising wedge....also i think we got an ABSORPTION pattern just below the pink line....divergence in hourly RSI...this could be a Bull trap.....pattern matching with september 2011

Nifty :Reversal

Powerful upmoves were seen. Another low made and bounced off just above the GAP at 4770. Looks like downmove is over and we should be going higher for the next couple of months. This looks like BUY THE DIPS market from here.

The W formations have been working well . Last year which was a bear market , the W formations retraced 76.8% of the falls. The last W formation was just before the Jan-Feb rally. The structure was different in case that the last leg extended past the first point of the W.  We have a good chance of repeating this time too. If you look at the 2004 chart , the rally after the correction was similar to the 2003 rally. So another Jan-Feb rally is possible. Theres also a possible Wolfe wave that people have been looking at but  TEXT BOOK wise , its timed out.

Note the W bottom.

But there are a couple of other charts I thought were looking good for the bull case.

Not only the S&P but also Nifty made bottom that timed well with thaat chart.

And offcourse this fancy chart from ERIC SWART.  The Aussie looks set to explode starting next week.

And finally our own 2004 chart. A fast nose dive fall would have behaved differently . But it was not so and we got this W bottom.

Check out that the rally after the correction ( triangle and Breakdown) was very similar to the rally before that . Expect Nifty to behave similar to jan-feb rally this time too. Will we rally ?????   I think we should.

Nifty::2004 analog

I think the pullback from 4790 was over at 5000 level and now we should see more selling to come. The 2004 index that i was watching is playing well , though i was looking for a straight nose dive to 4500 level that did not happen. instead we stopped at 4790 and now we should resume selling.  There are also astrological similarities with 2004 as i got to know from the blog below::

http://marketsmusic.blogspot.de/
".......... On 6th June Venus will pass through the disc of Sun like an ant moving through a golden plate. Don't try to see it by naked eyes - it may damage your eye sight. Use necessary protective measures. Such a Venus transit through the Sun disc(as seen from the earth) had taken place in June 2004 and after six months a massive earth quack and Tsunami struck the world. Do meditate and pray to have strength to face the natural calamities that may be due in Nov/Dec 2012. ........"

Here the 2003-2005 chart.  The markets took off for the rally on June 21 .  We saw sell -off around Tsunami time.
( The BIG one that everyone remembers )

We should be setting for something similar. The nose dive that i was expecting to 4500 is not exactly similar . We had a stop at 4780 from where we bounced till 5000. We have sold off from those levels to reach 4840. And i think more downsides to come. Minimum target for me is 4640 to close the GAP . And i think we should head lower. We had a freak trade for June contract of 4504 on 21st of May . these figures have been achieved on earlier occasions and theres no reason for me to think that this will not be achieved this time.
The descending triangle breakdown itself has a target of 4600 . 34 week BB( bollinger bands) lower level is at 4610 , 144 daily BB lower is at 4580 and so is the 89 week BB Lower level.

Another logic is that we need severe sell off and bearish sentiments for the FED to declare QE3. FOMC is slated for June19-20. Nice timing.

I have drawn an expected flightpath for the Nifty . Lets see. For the moment I am holding shorts . The FII-option data is also looking bearish with huge selling by FIIs .

NIFTY: Rethinking scenario

If you look at my below 2 posts , I was extremely bullish , calling for 5630 and even 5885 by may end. I had completely overlooked on of my most favourite indicators , 13 period Bollinger Bands in weekly chart.

I was also wrong to go LONG  for the last 2 weeks as once the market breached the  MID BB level , it was bound to hit the lower level and it was hit this week. So i should have waited for this Friday atleast.

One can see that many a times we hit the upper level exactly to do a reversal. And so last Jan-Feb rally also hit the
upper level and correction started. The upper band was stretched a bit because it was a fast rally.

The JAN -FEB rally was also similar to 2010 end year rally. And the correction now also looks similar. I have marked the points  1,2...till 6. The raly stopped at 1 and then travelled till 2 breaching the MID BB level.But the lower BB level was not touched . So the markets went up to hit the MID BB level at 3 . And then finally came to hit the lower BB Level at 4. Then it rallied 75% exactly of the 1-2 fall. Only to go down fast till 6 , which is 66.7% , BB lower level,34 week SMA.

Now the same thing looks to be happening. One difference is that point 3 now managed to close above MID BB level. but the 1-2 fall was also slower than 2010 1-2 fall. But the point is once it came down MID BB ,  it was bound to hit the LOWER BB , even if it manages to close above MID BB . So no longs should have been taken by me atleast till last FRIDAY.

So now it seems , point 4 is done and we are ripe for a rally to 5500 which is 75%  of 1-2  fall , which also coincides with UPPER BB. the rally may also go only till 5467 which is 66.7% of 1-2 fall. And then i expect a fall towards 6 which is 50% of the whole rally , 34 week SMA ( light blue) and 13 BB Lower level also at the same place , which is 5110.

One may easily say , that the same scenario might not play again. Well i got one more clue why i think that next 5 and 6 points should come in next 1 month period.

The below WOLFE WAVE shows a target of atleast 5450 in Nifty futures. I think that will go a little more than that to hit 5500 level. So that should be our point 5 . And every Wolfe wave target hit also sees a good reversal , And usually the reversal point reaches point 3 atleast. Here The point 3 is at 5172 in NF. I already stated 5110. So we can take average of 5172 and 5110 , as 5135 to be our point 6 target.  The below Wolfe wave took 23 candles in NF to form . So i expect target to be hit in around 11 trading days.

The DEFTY charts in previous post also giving a high target and time is mid May.

 And now to show that we should not fall anymore from here, I used this pitchfork chart to show that we are at good support.
We can easily see how well these parallel lines are acting as supports and resistances.. These lines are parralel to the Median line with the crucial point 1 shown in the chart.

For now i have given up hope of seeing 5880 . the 13 BB weeky chart shows that upside is capped at 5500 atleast for a month period may be.