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Saturday, April 30, 2011

Reliance may head UP

Divergence seen.

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Inverse Head and Shoulders

Look at the SnP , after many identified what was an IHNS.

Now look at the Nifty .

And with the dollar going down , we look to go UP.

Tuesday, April 26, 2011

ITC gone

Should be game over for ITC.

3 was 161.8% of 1 . 5 is 61.8% of 1 . SELL NOW .


Downtime started ?. Technicals not following . Divergence seen .

ICICI bank rolling over??

Technical indicators not following .



Already got 2 black candles. The other occasions when similar patterns were seen are shown by the ellipses. Also divergences seen.

Divergence IN SBI

Daily Chart below.

SBI count. Is the 5th wave almost over.

The 5thy wave may be truncated 50% of 1 at around 3000 or atmost 61.8% at 4163. But since divergence already seen , dont think it will go much higher.

Monday, April 25, 2011

Nifty Volume watch

In the above chart I have marked a horizontal line in the volume area. Marked some key areas where volume has gone down below that line .We see that when the trend is down with the volume going below that line, we see some good upmoves. 2 times we saw the trend up with the volume going below that line , and we saw huge down moves.

Today the volume has fallen below that line. trend has been down , although it has been a very slight downward movement. Looks like we are going UP very soon . Cant tell if it may happen tomorrow itself.

Saturday, April 23, 2011

Nifty Views and most probable targets

We will get bullish only if NIFTY breaks only if 78.6% retracement level is broken convincingly.

Also take note of that red Support and resistance line.

The present count which I am following :

(ii) was 61.8% retracement . (iv) was 38.2% retracement. Nifty has found it hard to breakthrough that red trend line. Managing to close just below it. At present Nifty is at 61.8% of (i) . 78.8% of (i) comes at 5987 . And 100% of (i) comes at 6067.
I am going freshly BULLISH only after these levels are surpassed convincingly.

The weekly charts are getting Overbought as well.

See what happened when Nifty had hit the trend line and also was at Overbought condition.

Tuesday, April 19, 2011

Nifty Views and most probable targets

Doing the larger B wave  . [a] , [b] completed. Now doing [c] in 5 waves. We are in the 4th of that .Most probable target is 5640-5665. (ii) retraced 61.8% . 38.2% retracement for this (iv) wave was at 5709 .But most likely this will get breached. The parralel channel has to be formed and at 5650 area, this will be perfect .5646 is also the 50% retracement of the previous uptrend.

Chart below.

Intersection of resistance and support lines at the 5650 area also gives us more confidence that the downtrend will end at that point.  But whats gonna be the targets for the next uptrend. Most likely targets are the red and blue DASHED trend lines. 6020 looks like a good target. It may also go upto 6088.


Friday, April 15, 2011

Nifty ready to EXPLODE UP.

We take a look at the 4 hour chart . We knew the blue trend line was going to be massive resistance and it has turned out exactly like that . To break it Nifty needs to consolidate and it has been doing exactly that .

The Nifty is moving up inside those converging light green trend lines . We already have seen before the blue descending trend line has provided massive resistance which worked the last trading day too. The red one has been the most accurate in providing resistance and support . Today we saw that Nifty went down to find support at the intersection of the pink and the light blue lines .  We find the Nifty consolidating in a triangle .
Most probably the light blue trend line will be the lower support line of this triangle and the upper boundary could be both the blue line or the dashed line . But the APEX of this triangle is very near and we will soon see a break out .

This time NIFTY could be aiming for that RED DASHED trend line . We take a look at the weekly chart .

The light green line is provided good support

Lastly the short term chart 1 min chart showing the NIFTY has been channeling for the last 3 hours . The light green line also shows that the Nifty may be headed up from here for a target above 5850.

What i suspect is that NIFTY is going to do 2-3 trading days of consolidation before EXPLODING UP towards that RED DASHED line .


Infosys looks hopeless

The case for Infosys looks hopeless . The  long term trend line support was broken earlier this week .
And today with a big volume day , down it went .Closing at 2990 , it may again find support at 2990 at the blue trend line .

The technicals are oversold in the short term charts . So we may see a bounce back next trading day to the previous support lines shown in the next chart . May be 50 -60 odd points .


Apple breaks trend line support

Apple has entered a corrective wave as I suspected before here not long back:

We take a look again at the charts below:

We see that 2 was a simple ABC zig-zag. Expect this 4th wave to be a complex corrective wave.

Looking at the short term chart below:

The very important sky blue trend line support was  broken today . But I dont think its going down fast just now. It has got a cluster of supports shown by the dashed green lines the last of which comes at around 315. If that breaks , the the move down is going to be fast . The next important trend line support is shown by the orange line.


USO targets

Chart below.

Oil found resistance at the intersection of the Green and blue lines and reversed  this week. the support was obviously the RED line and since the last 3 days its been going higher. It will again try to penetrate thegreen and majorly the blue line. I think it will this time as the dollar keeps going low. The pink line will serve as the next resistance at 49.4 . If it penetrates that , then i think this will have a free run targeting the orange line with targets 60 and above.


Friday, April 8, 2011

Dollar breaks trend line .

.........and all hell breaks loose in the commodity complex.

Its soooooooo 2008 now 

Wednesday, April 6, 2011

Nifty down on huge volumes

...not seen since 26 November last year.

Trendlines HIT

So which was the standout trend line ....was it the blue or pink line?..Well both of them stood out in stopping the nifty.

We see the pink trend line was hit with a spike of the Nifty just once . And then the blue trend line came into play . the UPs of the markets all day had been slamming into the blue trend line but wasn't able to break it. The situation is very similar to the last time we hit the blue trend line . The Nifty slided along the line for a few hours and then everything fell apart. So will this be the end of the " X" wave ....or is it the 3rd wave of another bullish trend . Thats still not clear. With oil going up , Japan and ME tensions , I am not very hopeful of another rally towards the highs of 6000s. But i am not sure. looking for the markets to come to 5700 area atleast.

The technicals are overbought in daily and hourly charts and are trending downwards.   The Wolfe Wave shows minimum target 5830 area.

That was the 1-min chart.

Dollar Gone

...I think you all know why the Sudden JUMP in Gold . The dollar has taken out important trend line support.
The blue one is broken . Approaching the red one which is not far behind.

Gold set be going to 1550 area.  

Tuesday, April 5, 2011

Nifty So close

We are so close to crucial trend lines. In the daily chart below we also see the death cross turning to golden cross ( atleast for now).  We should try to touch that red trend line tomorrow. Bears would like to see black candle there.

Daily technicals are overbought. We also see divergence in the 90 min chart Markets will try o touch crucial trend lines . We are almost in a similar position when the markets reversed after touching that blue line.

5915 is the 73.6% retracemnt from 6180 to 5177. 5966 is the 78.6% retracement level.

I get the feeling markets wont be up too high from here by looking at the reliance chart . If the MArket has to go higher reliance has to support it . Reliance is finding it hard to break the trend line resistances. Also showing divergences in the 90 min charts.


Friday, April 1, 2011

Apple charts.

Long term chart. Do you think Apple can go higher from here. Doesn't look like it will.

Should come down from present levels to touch atleast the lower red channel line.

I was just about to take shot at 348 when stock started come down .

Apple and the Broader markets are going some some meaningful correction from here on.

Massive resistance AHEAD

The daily chart tells it all. One can  name it X of WXY or B of ABC . The 61.8% retracement at point 5895.

The upper channel trend line and also the blue trend line joining the previous 2 tops , meet at the same point.
.And what more , we can also see that fibo fan 23.6% line sliding along. Can the bulls clear that .You decide.

So how are we going to get there. The below chart has some ideas .

I am not exactly sure how the above scenario will play out. It may be a simple ABC or it may be WXY. Lets see 15 min chart below of this little correction .All you have to do is trade the channels.

All I can say is at least once we should come down to touch the lower blue(or orange may be ) trend line around 5750 area.