Total Pageviews

Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Nifty Update

We got the rally we expected . That trend line Nifty broke has to be watched keenly .

Lets take a closer look where Nifty is.

This may give a good shorting opportunity . I dont see nifty crossing that trend line .


Wednesday, May 25, 2011

Nifty Rally Target

....most probably we will rally from Monday . but I expect this rally to be short . Target 5540.



.....momentum of Downfall is decreasing . And that Wolfe Wave might work.

Still channelling

...Nifty is still moving down that Channel trying to touch that lower channel trend line . I think we will have a down day tomorrow and a very SMALL Body (may be a DOJI ) candle on Friday. Expect the Nifty to hit both the lower Bollinger band and the trrend line and then do a little rally .

Monday, May 23, 2011

Nifty Channel Play

I expect the Nifty to hit the lower trend line of that red channel or the Bollinger lower band. That should come somewhere around 5300. Only then I can be confident of any kind of Upmove.

We should note that the channel had been playing very well and Nifty has been bouncing off up and down after hitting the channel lines.



...Divergence in TIs.

Nifty Update

Nifty rallied as I expected . But it was just for one day . Today nifty fell 100 points on the back of Euro crisis.
the best guess I can take here is that Nifty will bounce for a rally only when the lower Bollinger Band is HIT.
Most probably that would come at 5285 area. So its better to wait and Watch here. No longs and No shorts.


Friday, May 20, 2011

ICICI bank

....set to rally . Not much but to the mid Bollinger band ...around till 1072.

Wednesday, May 18, 2011

Nifty should rally

We should do a rally from here onwards. Not sure how high it might go. May be from tomorrow itself. Or tommorow we might see a DOJI.


Monday, May 16, 2011

Nifty down expected yesterday( see yesterdays Post ) . Didnt touch the trend line but its very close . Should touch it tommorow. And then we head back up . This is the point I am less than less sure than the previous two forecasts.

Do we touch that intersection point of green and pink line with the dashed orange channel line . Or do we head UP a bit more to touch that blue upper channel line to complete that "e " wave . Most probably we HIT that intersection point at 5570 tommorrow and head back down to do the 5th wave . We will get answer soon.

Technicals oversold in short  term  charts . So expecting up move tomorrow , but first we touch that trend line at around 5480 and then head back up to complete the 4th wave .

Saturday, May 14, 2011

Got the bounce

Got the bounce that I was expecting (see post below ). Jumped from 5475 to touch 5605. Again  went down fast. I expect another touch down on the trendline.Not sure if this 4th wave is complete.

The 15 minute chart shows the action more clearly . I am expecting something of a a-b-c-d-e like corrective wave. That blue lower trend line is the same as the blue trend line in the 4 hour chart above . I expect the Nifty to bounce off again from this trend line to touch that parallel channel orange line somewhere around 5580. the bears will need plenty of firepower to break this line . Next week is very crucial.

I am counting this 5 wave sequence from 5924 and not 5944 as many people are.

This Wolfe Wave should  work . Target the RED LINE . this may lead to 5350 . If not 5415.

Watch the lines . Thanks.


Comparision between WEEKLY and One Minute CHARTS

Heres the One Minute chart I saw last trading day::

Here is the weekly chart . Its turning out to be similar. Will the nifty follow.

We will see if the FRACTAL  has got any predictive POWER..

Thursday, May 12, 2011

Nifty update

We got the Fall that we were expecting today . We touched 5477 at one point close at 5486. The fall should get arrested here.we might not see a rally tomorrow itself. May be a small body candle.

Its hard to say how much of a rally we get here. Definitly not Expecting more than 5625. Most probably 5590 or 5610. Will keep an watch on the technical indicators for that END POINT of this mini rally.

Wednesday, May 11, 2011


Crude can fall to 37.20 level. I dont see much downside from that point.


Tuesday, May 10, 2011

Nifty Update

Correction is taking its time as usual. Nifty should drop to 5400 levels but may be Not RIGHT NOW. I see downside Movement to 5470 to hit that blue trend line . And then UP again to may be 5610 to complete this 4th wave.

The current action can be checked in this 15 min chart .

Broken the rising wedge . Had been trying to touch the lower trend line but has failed till now. Strong support at 5525. The last good support at 5503. If that fails 5470 will come.

Wolfe Wave in the 1 minute Chart indicating target 5460 area..


Saturday, May 7, 2011

SHould DROP to 5400 levels.

Nifty should DROP top 5415 area.  Short at present levels. Timeframe 2 days.

There is a chance it might go up a bit from here .But not much . I would go short right away. If 5415 is broken , next STOP is 5370.

Friday, May 6, 2011

Market manipulation

...the signs are everywhere. Heres what the author writes :

" ....For the attention of SEBI: On 26th April 2011 there was a freak transaction in Nifty futures @ 5393.45, which is 400 points below MiniNifty low @ 5793. From that day onwards Nifty was closing in red for the last 9 days(longest losing streak ever) and now Nifty is approaching "that freak figure". Open Interest of Puts at strike price 5400 is the highest (5,401,300)today. Both these facts indicate that there was a concerted attempt to bring down Nifty to the desired levels by some of the BIG dealers, which is against the interest of common people. To safeguard the interests of retail investors SEBI should investigate the following points and take appropriate remedial measures.
1)How above mentioned transaction took place when there was lakhs of entries?
2)Whether there is any inbuilt in mechanism to prevent such erroneous transactions?
3)Who are the parties to that transaction ? Who(buyer or seller) entered that figure and who benefited. Volume of that transaction? Any action taken by NSE/SEBI.
4)What are the checks to be incorporated in trading software to prevent such transactions in future.

No charts. But I think we should be touching 5400 levels by next week. 

Wednesday, May 4, 2011


The GREEN line as expected has proven to be significant resistance. When it breaks , it will have good Upmove.


Nifty VERY bearish

With the RBI hiking rates by 50bps, NIFTY has turned very bearish. Nifty has fallen for the 8th consecutive day and this has not happened for the past 3 YEARS!!!!!!.Technicals OVERSOLD. SO expected a littlebounce here . Also the trend line is HIT.

Nifty may try to touch that 20 Period EMA . Most probably a touch at 5640. But not expecting too much of an Upmove here.

Weekly charts . technicals signal SELL.


Monday, May 2, 2011

NIFTY should Move Up

...In a day or 2. Technicals Oversold. And this move downside was always looking corrective rather than Impulsive downmove.

Serious Support will come at 50 SMA , i.e 5640.

Relaince should head UP in a day or 2

technicals OVERSOLD and Divergence seen.

Targets is 1050.

ITC weekly in sell signal

I have labelled ITC as having completed 5 wave pattern. Now time for downside. The weekly indicators signals SELL.


SBI should head UP

Technicals Oversold. And lower channel trend line very near. So we should be going up to HIT that upper channel line.



Charts below. The VIX looks to be in a descending triangle.  Also elliot waves labelling can be shown. The target most probably is downside after completion of E.

Downside move targets 14. With the dollar going down we can see the Nifty rally towards 6150.