I think its correction time for Apple and so the broader markets . Targets around 320-325. In 2-3 days. Its sounds wild but lets see.
Take your chances . Short it now.
Take your chances . Short it now.
Tuesday, February 8, 2011
MORE DOWNSIDE for NIFTY
You see that post just below. Well , I think we should forget about that Nifty 5450 target for a while now.See the chart below which is a 15 minute chart. I think 5028 is definitely on the cards. The patterns look so similar. The base of that falling wedge is around 5000. 5028 is the 261.8% extension of wave A.
I will keep on finding some more patterns. Keep SHORTING.
I will keep on finding some more patterns. Keep SHORTING.
Hope for a rally
The NIFTY is looking more likely to touch 5200 or below. But we may get a rally before that in the coming 3 days for a target of 5450.
Sunday, February 6, 2011
Dow 13000 coming??
I found this chart somewhere. There wasn't much commentary along with it. Just that Printing billions can do a lot to BOOST sentiment. And with the FED Hawks already talking QE3 , we may really see it . But may be after a little correction now.
Saturday, February 5, 2011
Fibonacci
The Indian Markets had a huge down day on Friday and Nifty broke the Crucial 5400 level(on HUGE volumes). Monday will be very interesting. Egypt is building up . We shouldn't forget that important LEGATUS event (here:::---http://legatus.org/public/index.asp) . I had plenty of spare time , so i thought of working out the Fibonacci retracements and extensions for the current count we are looking at . Chart below :
[ ii ] retraces 23.6% of [ i ].
[ iii ] is 123.6% of [ i ].
[ iv ] retraces 38.2% of [ iii ].
[ v ] is 61.8% of [ i ].
A retraces 38.2% of the 5-wave impulse. A was a 5-wave motive wave forecasting a zig-zag. And it has been a zig-zag . B was a 3 wave corrective wave retracing 75.61% of A. C is already looking a huge downward moving wave.Usually C has targets 61.8% , or 100% or 161.8% of A. We have already crossed far below the first two distances. the 161.8% extension of A is 5135.But the again if we take 161.8% of I , we get to the target 5007 and 138.2% extension target is 5125. Looks like we are hitting these targets in 7-days .
One after another stop is being taken out with full force. Looks like its game over. 2008 all over again. This is what 2008 looked like. See the stocks started going down in January with a huge nearly 2000 point drop in the Nifty in 2 weeks at one point.
[ ii ] retraces 23.6% of [ i ].
[ iii ] is 123.6% of [ i ].
[ iv ] retraces 38.2% of [ iii ].
[ v ] is 61.8% of [ i ].
A retraces 38.2% of the 5-wave impulse. A was a 5-wave motive wave forecasting a zig-zag. And it has been a zig-zag . B was a 3 wave corrective wave retracing 75.61% of A. C is already looking a huge downward moving wave.Usually C has targets 61.8% , or 100% or 161.8% of A. We have already crossed far below the first two distances. the 161.8% extension of A is 5135.But the again if we take 161.8% of I , we get to the target 5007 and 138.2% extension target is 5125. Looks like we are hitting these targets in 7-days .
One after another stop is being taken out with full force. Looks like its game over. 2008 all over again. This is what 2008 looked like. See the stocks started going down in January with a huge nearly 2000 point drop in the Nifty in 2 weeks at one point.
This again shows that NEWS don't move the markets. I have a hunch that 2011 is going to be worse.
Keep shorting.
Friday, February 4, 2011
Posts from INDIA
Record outflows from EMs:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/global-markets/record-net-outflow-from-emerging-market-stocks-report/articleshow/7426586.cms
BIG EARTHQUAKE in my homestate:
http://www.rediff.com/news/report/northeast-india-rocked-by-quake-of-the-decade/20110204.htm
Assam had 2 of the BIGGEST earthquakes in HUMAN HISTORY. In 1897 and 1950. Both more than 8.5
After the 1950 one , floods became yearly phenomenon due to the changes to the BRAHMAPUTRA.
The US wants us to OPEN UP. I am pretty sure that it will not be for our good.
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/economy/india-needs-to-openits-economy-gary-locke_519853.html
Govt has no magic lamp to control inflation :FM
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/economy/govt-has-no-magic-lamp-to-control-inflation-fm_519847.html
Hes right . They cant do anything. Its all BERNANK.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/global-markets/record-net-outflow-from-emerging-market-stocks-report/articleshow/7426586.cms
BIG EARTHQUAKE in my homestate:
http://www.rediff.com/news/report/northeast-india-rocked-by-quake-of-the-decade/20110204.htm
Assam had 2 of the BIGGEST earthquakes in HUMAN HISTORY. In 1897 and 1950. Both more than 8.5
After the 1950 one , floods became yearly phenomenon due to the changes to the BRAHMAPUTRA.
The US wants us to OPEN UP. I am pretty sure that it will not be for our good.
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/economy/india-needs-to-openits-economy-gary-locke_519853.html
Govt has no magic lamp to control inflation :FM
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/economy/govt-has-no-magic-lamp-to-control-inflation-fm_519847.html
Hes right . They cant do anything. Its all BERNANK.
More Pictures
The Indian Markets did what its supposed to do . Go down . A huge 441 move down in Sensex. Also Nifty broke the CRUCIAL 5400 level everyones been talking about. Nothing more to see there . More downmoves coming in the next few days. Just found some more funny pictures.
Housing in trouble everywhere.
Heres the last one for the dismal jobs report.
Thanks.
Thursday, February 3, 2011
Wednesday, February 2, 2011
BIG COUNT
You can always count differently . The below is my PRIMARY. Its a B of an ABC . B's completed. So C starts now. And looking at the massive losses since start of the year , it really looks like we are in a massive impulsive wave downward.
423% of [ 1 ] is 6384 . The Nifty TOPPED out at 6338. [ 4 ] is 38.2% of [ 3 ].
423% of [ 1 ] is 6384 . The Nifty TOPPED out at 6338. [ 4 ] is 38.2% of [ 3 ].
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
All Downhill from here
Lets look at the count that I am concentrating now where the uptrend had started back in May last year.
Going by that count we are in the 3 of a C wave here. 1 and 2 are shown and the parallel lines shows the retracement from 1 to 2 which was a little less than 23.6%. Then started the 3rd wave. My favorite for this 3rd wave is that 138.2% extension of 1 , i.e 5135. Yesterday we went as low as 5410 to retrace back to 5507 and then today we opened up and touched 5561 which is exactly 38.2% retracement from 5410 low. So we can count it as the 2nd wave of this 3rd wave. So looking for more downside in the coming 3 days at least. Also it looks like a bearish engulfing pattern appeared today.The market is also much lower than its 200DMA for the first time since June last year.
Added a couple of other classic technical indicators as well. On the above chart we see that the MACD is clearly showing downtrend. The ADX (green line) is clearly moving towards 40 . Shows that the downtrend is only growing stronger.The RSI is at 30 but i think it has lot of room to move downwards.Expecting to slide along the lower edge of the Bollinger Band in this downtrend. Looks like its 2008 all over again for the Indian markets . At that time too the correction had started in January.
Another important result fo today :RELIANCE INDUSTRIES. The biggest stock in the markets has broken 900 . Shocker for a lot of people.Lets take a look at its chart too. I have to tell you this . I had never seen this chart . It had been trading in a range since the last two years.!!!!!Since it went up from the March 2009 low .
Looks like that break down of 900 is REALLY REALLY crucial.
All this is happening in spite of the dollar going down .The Indian markets were related inversely to the dollar at least to the A point. This is what happens to a market when its TIME IS UP. I cant even imagine what will happen if we see a massive dollar rally some time later in the year. For now , the BEAR HAT is firmly placed on my head.
See you down hill. Thanks.
Going by that count we are in the 3 of a C wave here. 1 and 2 are shown and the parallel lines shows the retracement from 1 to 2 which was a little less than 23.6%. Then started the 3rd wave. My favorite for this 3rd wave is that 138.2% extension of 1 , i.e 5135. Yesterday we went as low as 5410 to retrace back to 5507 and then today we opened up and touched 5561 which is exactly 38.2% retracement from 5410 low. So we can count it as the 2nd wave of this 3rd wave. So looking for more downside in the coming 3 days at least. Also it looks like a bearish engulfing pattern appeared today.The market is also much lower than its 200DMA for the first time since June last year.
Added a couple of other classic technical indicators as well. On the above chart we see that the MACD is clearly showing downtrend. The ADX (green line) is clearly moving towards 40 . Shows that the downtrend is only growing stronger.The RSI is at 30 but i think it has lot of room to move downwards.Expecting to slide along the lower edge of the Bollinger Band in this downtrend. Looks like its 2008 all over again for the Indian markets . At that time too the correction had started in January.
Another important result fo today :RELIANCE INDUSTRIES. The biggest stock in the markets has broken 900 . Shocker for a lot of people.Lets take a look at its chart too. I have to tell you this . I had never seen this chart . It had been trading in a range since the last two years.!!!!!Since it went up from the March 2009 low .
Looks like that break down of 900 is REALLY REALLY crucial.
All this is happening in spite of the dollar going down .The Indian markets were related inversely to the dollar at least to the A point. This is what happens to a market when its TIME IS UP. I cant even imagine what will happen if we see a massive dollar rally some time later in the year. For now , the BEAR HAT is firmly placed on my head.
See you down hill. Thanks.
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