Nifty update--4th October

This pattern looks like a continuation pattern. MASSIVE  MASSIVE  resistance at 4910. SO one could enter shorts here . For a target of 4790. As said yesterday , we could hit that parallel channel at around 4800 or go lower to HIT that RED trend line at around 4760. At 4865 , nifty is close to he resistance level 4910, one could take risk . The expanding pattern is being continuously HIT.

To all those who shorted on my advise yesterday ..Congratulations. And to all those who shorted today also , ....................congratulations.

Now look at the below chart . All the short term oscillators are oversold. I think we can enter a BUY NIFTY position here. Remember , the larger trend is BEARISH . So BIGGER short positions , and slightly smaller when going LONG. Will go long here . WIth STRICT stop LOSS.

 Remember , MASSIVE RESISTANCE at 4910.

NEWS:

----DEXIA , Belgian BANK, the MOST INSOLVENT BANK in the world, is in news  with its share prices down 20%.
----Italy almost 100bps wider than Spain in five-year CDS (482bps vs 389bps,
---- South Korea's vice finance minister says G20 discussing ways to boost liquidity in markets***

Nifty update

So gap down .And when NIFTY touched 4833, it actually closed the GAP left couple of days back. Technically I would look for a bounce here before a bigger fall. At this point its not possible to tell if we will fall more. So one could put a stop loss at 4833 and go LONG. Targets would be 4920 and 4945. Intraday or may be till tomorrow.

Currently , We watch that channel in 5 minutes.

Got stopped out .  Its very difficult to say when in OVERSOLD condition and bearish sentiments and NEWS overflowing , when a bounce will come . Whether we will bounce from here or after going down 40 more points. The best thing offcourse to do is SIT OUT. Or one can take some risk . My last guess for today .  That channel could be HIT . At around 4810.

Meanwhile BAD data keeps coming from EUROPE.

---Spanish Manufacturing PMI (Sep) M/M 43.7 vs. Prev. 45.3
---Swiss Retail Sales (Real) (Aug) Y/Y -1.9% vs. Prev. 1.9% (Prev. 2.9%)
---Spain #PMI tracked against INE man. production. Both output and new orders were down at fastest in > 2 yrs
---Swiss Manufacturing PMI (Sep) M/M 48.2 vs. Exp. 50.5 (Prev. 51.7)

Another pattern . Expanding one.

CNX IT

The Nifty have been riding this pullback mainly on the back of the IT index. Chart below shows the index is channeling and is now hitting the upper channel line. The upper Bollinger band has also been hit. And it has also retraced 50% of the BIG fall.Divergence is seen in CCI(8). Its striking on the same price resistance for the past 3 days and unable to clear it. Looks like it is coming down soon from these levels.

The WTF Chart of the DAY

2011 is 2008 all over again .

SHOCK INTERVIEW---Crash Right Ahead

This one VIDEO is going VIRAL on the internet. Everone from Presidents, to news channels , BLOGS...to doomsday sites......it has got hunndred  thousands of hits since it appeared just 2 days back........the message is that we are on the verge of a MASSIVE DEEPRESSION and no one can do anything about it.....


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aC19fEqR5bA&feature=player_embedded

Nifty Update-FED FOMC week

Too much volatility within a very small range. Difficult to trade if you are seated in office and not glued to LIVE CHARTS .  DHanvarsha (http://dhanvarshagrp.blogspot.com/2011/09/market-moved-up-due-to-short-covering.htmlsays) that all this moves are a result of SHORT covering .And it surely looked like no one wants to be in the market and FIGHT the FED.

Metal like COPPER isnt showing signs of BIG QE. Also David Rosenberg in ZeroHedge said that there might be a BIG sell-off if there isnt a BIG-couple-100-billion QE.  Another article I read today :

http://www.thetechnicaltake.com/2011/09/20/another-warning-sign-2/ says that Emerging markets are in a very BAD shape.

. But I got this chart. I find it very hard to believe that NIFTY WILL CROSS that MAGENTA horizontal line at 5196. Come WHAT MAY. All TECHNICALS are OVERBOUGHT.

Thanks.

CNX IT

IT helped most in the last NIFTY rally. Now it has HIT a confluence of resistances. The upper Bollinger level, the declining resistance line, 38.2% retracement level. Add to that overbought technical s.

India VIX----Fear still high

VIX is consolidating . It has been trading above 24 for some time now. It could break out of that consolidating range. Point to be noted here is that FEAR is elevated .

  

NIFTY Updates

Updated : Morning I shorted around 5045  ( see below). And was happy to see the NIFTY travelling some 70 points down in no time. But late in the day, all the markets in the world started going higher on the news that BIG central bank intervention was happening. 5045 was a very good resistance that we passed. But now the markets have hit another SOLID  resistance levels 5070-5090.Too much money infused into the system , intervention , rumours,  machine trading causing too much VOLATILITY. 100 points up down in a day.
Tomorrows rate hike will surely cause movement. Inflation is at 13 month high and racing towards double digits. Lots of hope for BEARS . We may still get good profit for out shorts initiated today. Important to cover at important levels. And if a 50 BPS hike comes then........Kaboom.

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So much of RUMOUR mongering  this week. Russia, China , Brazil , BRIC( I never found India's name alone) were coming forward to buy EURO countries debt.  At one point MERKOZY were about to make a BIG  announcement , which never happened. Rumours and oversold conditions combined to take the nifty where its now. But i dont see nifty going more than 5040. Oscillators are nearly nearly at overbought levels.

I think we should short comfortable for a target of at-least 4910. And may be 4880. For the next couple of days.Inflation is higher than last time. And is approaching double digits.

The GAP hasnt been filled . It will at 5060. I think we should be shorting at 5030-5060 BAND.

Channel formation ::

Thanks.

911 Week Pictures

Tight Security for 911 week.

Are they PULLING GREECE over the weekend??

Euro Elites telling us to remain CALM

Then theres KAREENA

Dominoes starting to ROLL............

                                           Wondering WHATS next for the markets!!!!!!!!!

Thanks.